Guides
Severe convective storms and rising premiums
Hail, tornado and straight-line wind losses now rival hurricanes. How they push premiums, deductibles and roof terms up, and what to compare at renewal.
Severe convective storms are thunderstorms that produce hail, tornadoes and damaging straight-line wind. Aon reported in January 2026 that they have overtaken tropical cyclones as the costliest insured peril of the 21st century (Aon). For homeowners in the middle of the country that shows up in two places: the premium, and, often more painfully, the terms around the premium, such as a percentage wind/hail deductible or a roof that is paid at depreciated value.
What the losses look like
Aon's tally of U.S. insured losses from severe convective storms was $52.3 billion in 2025, compared with $1.4 billion for winter weather and $0.19 billion for tropical cyclones, according to Triple-I's compilation of Aon data as of January 2026. No single storm drove that total. Aon's list of the costliest events includes the August 2020 Midwest derecho at $9.2 billion, a March 14 to 16, 2025 outbreak at $8.0 billion and a May 14 to 16, 2025 tornado and storm outbreak at $6.0 billion (nominal dollars, Triple-I/Aon). Aon attributes the pattern to "the accumulation effect of increasingly frequent, medium-sized catastrophes." Swiss Re counted secondary perils, such as these storms, floods and wildfires, at a record 92% of global insured losses in 2025.
Moody's, writing in May 2026, put SCS losses at more than $50 billion a year in the U.S. in recent years and said insured losses had grown about 10% a year over the last decade (Carrier Management). It points to exposure, repair costs and vulnerable roofs as the drivers:
- More exposure. Moody's cites U.S. housing stock growth of about 20% and suburban expansion into storm paths.
- More expensive repairs. It reports lumber and asphalt about 50% more costly than a decade ago, using Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price data. See inflation, rebuilding costs and underinsurance and building materials, labor shortages and claim costs.
- Vulnerable roofs. Asphalt shingles dominate U.S. roofing, and IBHS research shows they are prone to cumulative damage from repeated severe and smaller hail. Rooftop solar adds damageable equipment.
- Thin data. Moody's notes that year built, roof age and roof covering are often missing from insurers' files, so models fall back on average-property assumptions. It says aerial imagery and AI can fill the gaps.
How it reaches your bill
The rate
Approved rate increases have come down from their peak, though the measures differ. AM Best put the average approved homeowners increase at 13.5% in 2024, roughly 8% in 2025 and 4.3% in the first half of 2026 (Reinsurance News on AM Best, September 2026). S&P Global Market Intelligence has the effective approved change at about 13.6% in 2024, 6.3% in 2025 and 1.8% through July 2026, and says the slowdown reflects "broad-based, non-rate actions" such as higher deductibles, rate tiering by property age and condition, and tighter risk selection (Insurance Journal, September 2026).
Storm states look different from the national picture. S&P figures cited in that report show Minnesota at about 17.8% in 2025 and 1.6% so far in 2026, and Colorado at 16.6% and 0.8%. In Texas, the Texas Department of Insurance said homeowners filings made since July 1, 2026 averaged a 4.3% decrease over the past 90 days, affecting about 700,000 policyholders (Carrier Management, October 2026). Do not read one state's trend as your own. Your rate depends on your insurer's filing and your roof.
The terms
When regulators scrutinize rate increases, insurers have other levers, and S&P names them: deductibles, age-based tiering and risk selection. For a hail-belt homeowner the main ones are:
- A wind/hail deductible set as a percentage of Coverage A, or an increase in the percentage at renewal (wind and hail deductibles explained).
- A roof surfacing payment schedule or an ACV roof endorsement that pays hail and wind damage to the roof at less than replacement cost (Roof payment schedules and ACV roof endorsements).
- A cosmetic damage exclusion, common on metal roofs.
- Roof-age rules that require a newer roof for full coverage, or non-renewal of an old one.
Moody's says policyholders are likely experiencing one or more of higher premiums, higher deductibles, lower limits and cosmetic damage exclusions. Hence the point about renewals: a flat or lower premium can come with a worse policy.
A hypothetical comparison
Say your dwelling limit is $350,000 and your roof, 12 years old, would cost $20,000 to replace after a hail claim.
| Renewal A | Renewal B | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual premium | $2,400 | $2,300 |
| Wind/hail deductible | 1% = $3,500 | 2% = $7,000 |
| Roof settlement | Replacement cost | Payment schedule, 50% at this age |
| Roof paid after a hail claim | $20,000 less $3,500 = $16,500 | $10,000 less $7,000 = $3,000 |
| Your out-of-pocket on the roof | $3,500 | $17,000 |
Renewal B saves $100 a year and costs $13,500 more after one roof claim. The numbers are invented, but the structure is real, and it is why a renewal comparison should start with the declarations page and the endorsements, not the premium line. The hurricane and percentage deductible calculator and home insurance renewal increase checker help with the arithmetic.
Where it concentrates
Hail and tornado exposure sits in the central U.S. NAIC data for 2023, published in July 2026, put the average HO-3 premium at $2,864 in Texas, $2,492 in Colorado and $2,486 in Oklahoma, among the five highest states alongside Louisiana and Florida (the national HO-3 average was $1,737). Storm exposure is only one input to those averages. The Senate Budget Committee's staff report of December 2024 found Oklahoma's nonrenewal rate was 1.45% in 2023, up 103% from 2018, which is one measure of insurers pulling back on risk. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center counted 1,559 tornadoes in 2025 (preliminary), with the most in Texas, Illinois, Missouri and Mississippi.
For the regional picture, see The Midwest's rising storm losses and rates and colorado home insurance: hail and wildfire.
What states are doing
Some states are trying to reduce the losses themselves.
- Colorado. SB26-155, signed in June 2026, creates an enterprise funded by an annual 0.5% charge on premiums of admitted multiperil homeowners insurers starting in 2027, with at least 85% of the money going to grants for retrofits that reduce hail and wind losses (Insurance Journal, June 2026). The governor projects savings of $800 a year, a figure the report does not independently support.
- Minnesota. A statute, Minn. Stat. 65A.298, requires discounts for homes with a FORTIFIED designation that includes the hail supplement.
- Oklahoma. Strengthen Oklahoma Homes opened for applications on January 12, 2026, with grants of up to $10,000 for FORTIFIED Roof upgrades for homeowners with a homestead exemption (Oklahoma Insurance Department).
IBHS rates asphalt shingles for hail resistance, and in its November 2025 scorecard none of 23 products earned the top "Excellent" rating. See Impact-resistant (Class 4) roofs and hail discounts and The FORTIFIED Home standard and insurance discounts.
What to do before your next renewal
- Pull last year's and this year's declarations pages side by side. Check the wind/hail deductible, roof endorsements, cosmetic exclusion and the roof age and material the insurer lists.
- Correct the roof record. TDI advises confirming that the policy shows the right roof age and material, and telling the insurer when you replace the roof so it can update the age (TDI).
- Price the deductible choices. A higher deductible lowers premium but raises what you must have in cash. Keep the dollar figure in mind, not just the percentage.
- Ask which roof credits exist and what proof they need, before paying for a re-roof. The roof and mitigation upgrade payback calculator shows whether the credit repays the upgrade.
- Shop on identical terms. Quotes with different deductibles and roof settlement are not comparable (how to compare homeowners insurance quotes).
- Read the claim side. If a storm hits, hail damage claims: roofs, siding and windows explains how the terms above play out.
Key takeaways
- Severe convective storms are now the costliest insured peril of this century, according to Aon, and U.S. losses were $52.3 billion in 2025.
- The growth comes largely from more homes in the path, costlier repairs and vulnerable roofs, not only from the weather.
- National rate increases have slowed, but insurers are using deductibles, roof payment schedules, cosmetic exclusions and age tiering, so a similar premium can hide worse coverage.
- Compare your declarations page year over year: percentage wind/hail deductible, roof settlement basis and roof age on file.
- Keep your roof record accurate, and consider an impact-resistant or FORTIFIED roof when you replace it, if the credits justify the cost.